Forsa Poll Reflects Changing Political Landscape in Germany Ahead of 2025 Federal Elections
Recent survey indicates a rise in support for the Union and the Left Party, while the Greens experience a decline.
As Germany gears up for its federal election on February 23, 2025, a Forsa survey has highlighted significant shifts in party support among the electorate.
The survey, conducted by Forsa for RTL/ntv, reveals that the Union, consisting of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Christian Social Union (CSU), has gained 1 percentage point, bringing its total support to 29 percent.
In the same period, the Left Party has also increased its support by 1 percentage point to reach 6 percent, marking its highest approval rating since March 2022.
Conversely, the Greens have seen a decline, losing 1 percentage point and now standing at 14 percent.
The Social Democratic Party (SPD) remains steady at 16 percent, while the Alternative for Germany (AfD) maintains its position with 20 percent support.
The Free Democratic Party (FDP) struggles with just 4 percent, below the critical 5 percent threshold needed for parliamentary representation.
Among younger voters aged 18 to 29, the Greens and the Left Party are tied for the lead at 19 percent each, followed by the AfD at 17 percent and the Union at 16 percent.
Support from the SPD and FDP in this demographic is comparatively lower, with 7 percent and 6 percent, respectively.
The coalition led by Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) receives 4 percent in this age group.
In a hypothetical scenario allowing direct voting for a Chancellor, CDU's Friedrich Merz leads with 24 percent, an increase of 2 percentage points.
Green leader Robert Habeck closely follows at 23 percent, while the current Chancellor, Olaf Scholz of the SPD, rises to 17 percent support.
AfD's Alice Weidel sees a slight decrease to 15 percent.
The structure of the new Bundestag will comprise 630 seats, with a majority requiring at least 316 seats for any coalition to govern.
The Union has ruled out a collaboration with the AfD, prompting speculation on potential coalitions.
A combination of CDU/CSU and SPD could yield 333 mandates, while a CDU/CSU and Greens coalition would result in 319 seats.
Polling data indicates that 43 percent of respondents prefer a renewed Grand Coalition, or GroKo, between the Union and SPD, compared to 33 percent who favor a coalition with the Greens.
Only 17 percent support a partnership with the AfD, which Union leader Merz has categorically rejected.
Support for a Grand Coalition is particularly strong among CDU and CSU supporters, with 53 percent in favor, and even higher among SPD voters at 81 percent.
Notably, 92 percent of AfD supporters indicate a preference for a coalition with the Union, despite their electoral rivalry.
The previous Grand Coalition, led by Angela Merkel from 2013 to 2021, continues to influence voter and party preferences ahead of the upcoming election.
The Forsa survey involved 1,001 respondents from February 6 to 7, 2025, with a margin of error of 3 percentage points.
Additionally, data regarding Chancellor and party preferences was gathered from 2,502 respondents between February 4 and 10, 2025, with a margin of error of ±2.5 percentage points.
A coalition between the CDU/CSU and FDP was not included in the polling questions.
The survey, conducted by Forsa for RTL/ntv, reveals that the Union, consisting of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Christian Social Union (CSU), has gained 1 percentage point, bringing its total support to 29 percent.
In the same period, the Left Party has also increased its support by 1 percentage point to reach 6 percent, marking its highest approval rating since March 2022.
Conversely, the Greens have seen a decline, losing 1 percentage point and now standing at 14 percent.
The Social Democratic Party (SPD) remains steady at 16 percent, while the Alternative for Germany (AfD) maintains its position with 20 percent support.
The Free Democratic Party (FDP) struggles with just 4 percent, below the critical 5 percent threshold needed for parliamentary representation.
Among younger voters aged 18 to 29, the Greens and the Left Party are tied for the lead at 19 percent each, followed by the AfD at 17 percent and the Union at 16 percent.
Support from the SPD and FDP in this demographic is comparatively lower, with 7 percent and 6 percent, respectively.
The coalition led by Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) receives 4 percent in this age group.
In a hypothetical scenario allowing direct voting for a Chancellor, CDU's Friedrich Merz leads with 24 percent, an increase of 2 percentage points.
Green leader Robert Habeck closely follows at 23 percent, while the current Chancellor, Olaf Scholz of the SPD, rises to 17 percent support.
AfD's Alice Weidel sees a slight decrease to 15 percent.
The structure of the new Bundestag will comprise 630 seats, with a majority requiring at least 316 seats for any coalition to govern.
The Union has ruled out a collaboration with the AfD, prompting speculation on potential coalitions.
A combination of CDU/CSU and SPD could yield 333 mandates, while a CDU/CSU and Greens coalition would result in 319 seats.
Polling data indicates that 43 percent of respondents prefer a renewed Grand Coalition, or GroKo, between the Union and SPD, compared to 33 percent who favor a coalition with the Greens.
Only 17 percent support a partnership with the AfD, which Union leader Merz has categorically rejected.
Support for a Grand Coalition is particularly strong among CDU and CSU supporters, with 53 percent in favor, and even higher among SPD voters at 81 percent.
Notably, 92 percent of AfD supporters indicate a preference for a coalition with the Union, despite their electoral rivalry.
The previous Grand Coalition, led by Angela Merkel from 2013 to 2021, continues to influence voter and party preferences ahead of the upcoming election.
The Forsa survey involved 1,001 respondents from February 6 to 7, 2025, with a margin of error of 3 percentage points.
Additionally, data regarding Chancellor and party preferences was gathered from 2,502 respondents between February 4 and 10, 2025, with a margin of error of ±2.5 percentage points.
A coalition between the CDU/CSU and FDP was not included in the polling questions.
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